Do you know about the law of diminishing returns in economics? or have you heard about the 10,000 hours law about how to be good in anything?
Recently my blog has gone through a philosophical change. Actually, a lot of things has changed in my life, this blog is just a reflection of them, like my country of residence, the people I spend most of my time with, my habits, my friend circle, the culture around me, my ways of thinking, my recent experiences. All in all, there has been a significant growth in my personality which has brought me closer to the spiritual truth, if it even exists.
Being a sceptic like Rene Descartes, I have decided to let go of all my knowledge or presumptions of things I know, and this blog will be a reflection of some things I assume can be true, but I would only accept them to be true if I fail to reject them (Ho = my knowledge gather over the course of 25 years).
So, now to the heart of the problem, Logistic regression. It looks something like this
A beautiful curve isn't it?
Well, think of success and failure being on a curve, think about the effort you put in to be successful in something. Now a very high-level understanding of logistic regression (And stop me if it gets too technical) you have some random variable X like shown in the graph above, and there's some probability associated with each entry of that random variable. Bear with me for a minute, I'll make this explanation better, imagine that random variable to be the effort you have put in to achieve something, I know it's difficult to quantify effort so let's take a proxy variable time to represent effort (using the 10,000-hour rule as a premise) and the question to ask is what is the probability that I would succeed in doing whatever I have been training to do, given I put so many hours practise for it? I understand the number of hours spent for different people would be different and it's a very subjective affair, but the point I am driving at is the shape of the graph or the function of this curve to reflect how your journey towards success is going to look like.
From my observations, when you start with any new activity you start slowly, it is tough, it is painful, there's a relatively flat learning curve, but as you carry on with it, because you have grit, it gets simpler and your performance momentum builds up, represented by the steeper middle portion of the graph, you learn faster, you do better, you start seeing gains, but after some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in and you don't get enough bang for your buck, the amount of effort you put in and the results you see are not linear, you start getting disappointed and here's the point a lot of people quit, and if a person continues at this point in the game they become the best in the game, which actually means putting a lot more hours to understand a difficult concept or tackling a harder task to win in the game of life.
But what I am essentially saying is, if you want to be 1 from a 0, you have to endure the pain towards the end and this would give you a higher probability of achieving whatever you set out to achieve.
I know you sort of already knew this, and essentially you got no new information from reading this post, and it's been an utter waste of time, you could have totally done something else to waste your time. Haha I tricked you to read how I think about things and may be provided you with a new way of looking at life and tackling problems ( you're such a sucker )
With this thought, I bid you adieu (Just kidding I am an atheist.. and the reasoning behind that is a blog post for another time )
Recently my blog has gone through a philosophical change. Actually, a lot of things has changed in my life, this blog is just a reflection of them, like my country of residence, the people I spend most of my time with, my habits, my friend circle, the culture around me, my ways of thinking, my recent experiences. All in all, there has been a significant growth in my personality which has brought me closer to the spiritual truth, if it even exists.
Being a sceptic like Rene Descartes, I have decided to let go of all my knowledge or presumptions of things I know, and this blog will be a reflection of some things I assume can be true, but I would only accept them to be true if I fail to reject them (Ho = my knowledge gather over the course of 25 years).
So, now to the heart of the problem, Logistic regression. It looks something like this
A beautiful curve isn't it?
Well, think of success and failure being on a curve, think about the effort you put in to be successful in something. Now a very high-level understanding of logistic regression (And stop me if it gets too technical) you have some random variable X like shown in the graph above, and there's some probability associated with each entry of that random variable. Bear with me for a minute, I'll make this explanation better, imagine that random variable to be the effort you have put in to achieve something, I know it's difficult to quantify effort so let's take a proxy variable time to represent effort (using the 10,000-hour rule as a premise) and the question to ask is what is the probability that I would succeed in doing whatever I have been training to do, given I put so many hours practise for it? I understand the number of hours spent for different people would be different and it's a very subjective affair, but the point I am driving at is the shape of the graph or the function of this curve to reflect how your journey towards success is going to look like.
From my observations, when you start with any new activity you start slowly, it is tough, it is painful, there's a relatively flat learning curve, but as you carry on with it, because you have grit, it gets simpler and your performance momentum builds up, represented by the steeper middle portion of the graph, you learn faster, you do better, you start seeing gains, but after some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in and you don't get enough bang for your buck, the amount of effort you put in and the results you see are not linear, you start getting disappointed and here's the point a lot of people quit, and if a person continues at this point in the game they become the best in the game, which actually means putting a lot more hours to understand a difficult concept or tackling a harder task to win in the game of life.
But what I am essentially saying is, if you want to be 1 from a 0, you have to endure the pain towards the end and this would give you a higher probability of achieving whatever you set out to achieve.
I know you sort of already knew this, and essentially you got no new information from reading this post, and it's been an utter waste of time, you could have totally done something else to waste your time. Haha I tricked you to read how I think about things and may be provided you with a new way of looking at life and tackling problems ( you're such a sucker )
With this thought, I bid you adieu (Just kidding I am an atheist.. and the reasoning behind that is a blog post for another time )
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